October CPI is due November 10, with forecasts differing on annual and monthly inflation.
Why it matters: The report could influence Treasury yields, the dollar, equity valuations and expectations for the Federal Reserve's December decision. Technology and other rate-sensitive growth stocks may be especially exposed to a hotter reading.
- The October CPI report is scheduled for November 10, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. ET.
- Axios-cited forecasts call for 3.9% annual headline inflation and 2.7% annual core inflation.
- The Cleveland Fed nowcast cited in the dossier estimates monthly gains of about 0.24% for headline CPI and 0.21% for core CPI.
- The Associated Press reported market pricing implied roughly a 76% chance of an increase in the Fed's target rate at the December meeting.
Investors were positioning Monday, November 9, 2026, for the October consumer-price index report, scheduled for Tuesday, November 10, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time. The Bureau of Labor Statistics' 2026 release calendar sets the timing.
The report will test whether September's inflation acceleration was temporary. According to the BLS consumer price index release, headline CPI rose 0.6% in September from the prior month and 3.7% over the year. Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose 0.3% monthly and 2.6% annually.
Energy drove much of September's increase. Gasoline prices rose 9.1%, accounting for more than half of the monthly gain, while the broader energy index increased 5.2%. Brent crude fell 5.8% on Monday to about $92.57 a barrel, potentially easing one source of headline pressure.
Axios cited forecasts for October headline inflation of 3.9% year over year and core inflation of 2.7%. The Cleveland Fed nowcast cited by FXStreet estimated monthly gains of about 0.24% for headline CPI and 0.21% for core CPI. Those are forecasts, not official results.
The data follows October payrolls growth of 165,000, an unemployment rate of 4.1% and a 0.4% monthly increase in average hourly earnings, all figures reported in the Associated Press market report. The same report said the two-year Treasury yield reached about 4.51%, the 10-year yield was near 4.87% and market pricing implied roughly a 76% chance of an increase in the Fed's target rate at the December meeting. The dossier does not identify the market instrument, policy-rate increment or exact timestamp behind that probability.
A hotter report would generally push yields and the dollar higher while pressuring technology and other long-duration equities. A softer reading could have the opposite effect. The Fed's final scheduled 2026 meeting is December 8-9, according to its official calendar.
By the numbers
- 3.9% - Axios-cited forecast for October headline CPI inflation over the year
- 2.7% - Axios-cited forecast for October core CPI inflation over the year
- 165,000 - October payrolls increase reported by the Associated Press
Yes, but: The market-probability figure is reported in the provided Associated Press account, but the dossier does not specify its exact timestamp, market instrument or assumed size of the target-rate increase. The Cleveland Fed estimate is also presented through a secondary FXStreet account rather than a direct Cleveland Fed link.
What's next: The October CPI report is scheduled for November 10, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. ET. The Fed's final scheduled 2026 meeting is December 8-9.