China’s October exports beat forecasts, but faster import growth sharply narrowed the trade surplus.
Why it matters: The data show Chinese manufacturing and overseas demand remain strong while imports accelerate. The huge cumulative surplus could intensify pressure from the United States, European Union and other trading partners.
- Exports rose 35.2% year over year in October, ahead of the 33.5% Reuters poll forecast.
- Imports surged 41.6%, exceeding the 32% forecast and accelerating from 31% growth in September.
- The trade surplus narrowed to about $105.3 billion from $133.5 billion in September.
- China’s goods-trade surplus reached about $1.04 trillion in the first 10 months of 2026.
China’s exports remained exceptionally strong in October, but imports grew even faster, narrowing the trade surplus, according to customs data reported by CNBC.
Goods exports rose 35.2% year over year in U.S.-dollar terms, easing from 36.3% growth in September but beating the 33.5% median forecast in a Reuters poll. Imports increased 41.6%, up from 31% in September and above the 32% forecast.
The resulting surplus was about $105.3 billion, below September’s $133.5 billion and the roughly $125.8 billion forecast. Still, China’s surplus exceeded $1 trillion for the first 10 months of the year, reaching approximately $1.04 trillion, the Associated Press reported.
High-technology goods helped support exports. Semiconductor export value rose 137.1% in October, while auto exports increased 37.6%. Exports to the United States rose 32.9% and those to the European Union climbed 24.3%.
China’s official data, published through a Ministry of Commerce platform, show January-to-October exports rose 17.6% in yuan terms to 25.99 trillion yuan. Imports rose 23.6% to 18.82 trillion yuan.
Analysts cited by AP pointed to demand for electronics, semiconductors and autos, as well as industrial inputs and crude oil. Alicia García-Herrero of Natixis said overcapacity, excess savings and weak domestic demand were still pushing Chinese companies to ship goods abroad.
The dollar- and yuan-denominated figures are not directly comparable because of currency-conversion effects. The data cover goods trade, not the broader balance of payments including services.
By the numbers
- 35.2% - October export growth in U.S.-dollar terms
- 41.6% - October import growth, year over year
- $105.3 billion - October trade surplus, down from $133.5 billion in September
Yes, but: The data do not establish whether stronger imports reflect broad household demand, investment, industrial restocking, commodity prices or shipment timing. Analysts also warn that weak domestic demand and industrial overcapacity may be driving exporters to rely heavily on foreign markets.