Mark Carney says Canada-US trade talks advanced, without disclosing a deal or terms.
Why it matters: The negotiations could reshape supply chains, investment decisions and cross-border exposure for manufacturers, energy companies and financial institutions. The talks advanced shortly before the November 3 US midterm elections, though the draft does not establish an attempt to influence voters.
- Carney said November 1 that he had a constructive conversation with President Donald Trump about a potential trade agreement.
- Negotiators will continue working in the coming weeks, but neither government disclosed tariff or market-access terms.
- An October 28 statement said the countries were not positioned to reach a deal before the November 3 US midterm elections.
- About 80% of Canadian goods exports to the US remained tariff-free in October, while the estimated average US tariff rate was 7.5%.
Canada's Prime Minister Mark Carney said negotiations with the United States had made progress after a conversation with President Donald Trump, shifting the tone from late October but stopping short of announcing an agreement.
“Good conversation with President @realDonaldTrump on the future of Canada-U.S. trade,” Carney said. He added that the negotiating teams would work in the coming weeks to deliver an outcome, according to the Canadian prime minister's statement.
Trump separately said the two sides had “the concept of a very good deal,” and mentioned the Keystone XL pipeline and potentially eliminating tariffs paid by US farmers on Canadian products. Import tariffs are generally charged to importers; Trump did not specify whether he meant eliminating tariffs on Canadian goods purchased by US farmers or another measure.
The core disputes remain unresolved. The countries have discussed possible relief from US tariffs affecting Canadian steel and automobiles, along with automotive rules of origin, dairy-market access, digital-services taxation, critical minerals and softwood lumber, according to Associated Press reporting.
In a November 2 report, AP said no draft agreement, negotiating framework or implementation timeline was public. The timing is politically sensitive: the talks advanced two days before the November 3 US midterm elections, while Carney had said on October 28 that a deal was not yet near, according to the same report. The draft does not establish an attempt to influence voters.
The economic stakes are significant. Canada supplied about 63% of US crude-oil imports by quantity in 2024, and the US imported approximately $413 billion in goods from Canada while exporting about $349 billion to Canada, according to Bank of Canada figures. The Bank said Canada imposed counter-tariffs on approximately C$28 billion of US goods after Washington imposed a 50% tariff on roughly $20 billion of Canadian goods.
The Bank of Canada's 7.5% figure is an estimated average tariff rate; the supplied materials do not identify it as a separately defined effective or weighted-average rate. The 80% figure refers to the share of Canadian goods exports that remained tariff-free, so it measures coverage rather than the average rate applied across trade.
By the numbers
- 80% - Share of Canadian goods exports to the US that remained tariff-free in October
- 7.5% - Estimated average US tariff rate on Canadian goods
- 63% - Canada's share of US crude-oil imports by quantity in 2024
Yes, but: The announcement signals a change in tone, not a completed agreement. No draft, negotiating framework, implementation timeline or tariff terms were public as of November 2.
What's next: Negotiating teams are expected to continue working in the coming weeks.